2023 NZB Ready to Run Sale Review

4 min readNov 23, 2023

The 2023 edition of the New Zealand Ready to Run Sale took place over the past two days in Karaka. 5 weeks post the Breeze Ups on the turf at Te Rapa. It’s a sale that has been growing in profile over recent years and stands alone as the pre-eminent Breeze Up / Ready to Run sale in the Southern Hemisphere.

Anecdotally, the organisers had some dilemma to identify which graduate would play centrepiece on the front cover of this years’ catalogue. Not due to paucity of options but rather embarrassment of riches. Graduates of the sale in recent years including; Golden Sixty, the 2022/23 Hong Kong Horse of the year, Mr Brightside, multiple Group 1 winner in the shape of the Maykbe Diva, Memsie and the Doncaster Mile, twice. It was the Champion Sprinter, Lucky Sweynesse, purchased here by J&I Bloodstock for $90,000 in 2020 that took the honours. No doubt a nod to the captive Asian and Hong Kong market for the sale.

For breeze up sales, we compile two primary sets of analysis. The first is an Expected Times model, which compares the actual breeze up time of the horse vs an expected time based on a series of input variables compiled in our analytical models. Going fast is all relative, and has to be set in the context of the profile of the horse.

The overall median breeze time across the sale was 10.82 seconds.

The track rode quicker on Monday than on Tuesday. The mean breeze time on Monday was 10.78 seconds, with a median of 10.76 seconds, on Tuesday both mean and median came out at 10.90 seconds. These adjustments have been incorporated into the expected time figures.

Here’s how we analyse the sale from a times vs expected times perspective. Under the line indicates a time that was quicker than our expected time.

After reducing the field via our time analysis, we are then using our biomechanics model to identify elite potential prospects. This compares the walk and gait profile of horses at the sale vs a database of 2yo breeze up horses globally since 2019. Evaluating how they walked at the sale vs their respective track performance outcomes.

Here’s some of our top rated lots from the sale.

– -

106 Zoustar x Lombardia

Phoenix Park

Waikato Bloodstock

$500,000

High biomechanics score of 95.86%. Rated 14th overall on the raw breeze times and 26th overall on times v expected, -0.41 seconds quicker than our expectation model.

–

114 Capitalist x Madame Veuve

Ohukia Lodge

Mr Wing Keung So

$550,000

19th overall on raw times, upgraded to 14th vs. expectation. Biomechanics score of 91.59%

–

117 Super Seth x Magazine

Ohukia Lodge

Wylie Dalziel / Moody Racing

$150,000

19th overall on raw times, upgraded to 14th vs. expectation.

Biomechanics score of 91.59%

–

Lot 146 Headwater x My Dear Friend

Phoenix Park

Mark Newnham Bloodstock

$425,000

This Hellbent gelding more of a Biomechanics play than times play. He scored 91.85% on our walk biomechanics model.

On times he recorded a breeze time of 10.73 vs an Expected Time of 10.78, -0.05 seconds under his expected time. That had him ranked 112th on times overall and 161st on times v expectation.