First Season Sires 2023
The Champion First Season Sire market for 2023 was published in the last couple of days on SkyBet, and that warrants a couple of words by way of analysis.
Last season we were fortunate enough to make the call on Havana Grey as Champion FSS at 9/4 when Sioux Nation was installed at an immediate favourite at 4/7 and he duly obliged with a decisive victory overall with 34 winners from 69 runners in GB and 3/8 in Ireland. Not a price that’s going to make you rich, but enjoyable to turn over an odds-on poke all the less.
A throwback to an enjoyable discussion with Jack Cantillon on the Art of the Mating podcast back in 2021. Here’s the link, the FSS part is about 3/4 of the way through:
For the 2023 GB&I First Season Sire market SkyBet go 2/1 Ten Sovereigns, 5/2 Blue Point, 3/1 Inns of Court and 7/2 Soldiers Call. 12/1 and above the rest.
Having studied this market for a couple of years now you get to know how the odds compilers generally put it together, typically basing pricing on the volume of foals or expected runners they expect each sire to have running for them. The logic is pretty simple — the more soldiers that you have then the more chance of a higher proportion of winners.
I’m not sure if the number of foals from each sires’ foal crop is publicly available at present (someone please link to it if it is), but there are a couple of data points that we can use. From data in Weatherbys Return of Mares, we know the number of mares each sire covered as part of this crop;
Inns Of Court (218)
Ten Sovereigns (214)
Blue Point (198)
Magna Grecia (180)
Too Darn Hot (172)
Soldiers Call (164)
Calyx (163)
Capri (158)
Land Force (155)
Phoenix of Spain (148)
Masar (146)
Invincible Army (138)
Advertise (138)
Waldgeist (117)
Tally Ho supported FSS Inns of Court very well in his first season, as they do with all their young sires and he can be assured of a number of runners with strong chances. Ten Sovereigns and Blue Point claim out first positions in the market due to the large volume of mares covered, combined with the quality of their books’ — certainly stronger on the page that the mares covered by Inns of Court.
Record as 2yos themselves
I’d regard Too Darn Hot as bringing the strongest form as a 2yo himself into the group. He was European Champion 2yo in 2018, winning the Solario, Champagne Stakes and Dewhurst. There’s a formline between a couple of them here via that Dewhurst run, with TDH victorious over another top contender here; Advertise.
Advertise would be my second highest ranked sire here based on the quality of their 2yo form. He got his Group 1 when winning the Phoenix Stakes at The Curragh, beating So Perfect and The Irish Rover. He also took out the Group 2 Newmarket July Stakes, beating Konchek and Charming Kid over 6f.
Ten Sovereigns rounds out my top 3, with Group level successes in the Newmarket Middle Park S., Gr.1 (6f beating Jash and Rumble Inthejungle) and the Curragh Round Tower S., Gr.3 (6f beating Bruce Wayne and Fantasy).
Here’s a quick summary of the 2yo form of the other leading FSS contenders.
Blue Point — York Gimcrack S., Gr.2 (6f beating Mokarris and The Last Lion), Doncaster Trent Furnace 2YO S. (6f), Nottingham British Stallion Studs 2YO Novice S. (6f), 2d Newmarket Middle Park S., Gr.1 (6f to The Last Lion and beating Mehmas), Goodwood Richmond S., Gr.2 (6f to Mehmas and beating Intelligence Cross), 3d Newmarket Dewhurst S., Gr.1 (7f to Churchill and Lancaster Bomber).
Calyx — Royal Ascot Coventry S., Gr.2 (6f beating Advertise and Sergei Prokofiev), Newmarket AFT Fluorotec 2YO S. (6f)
Magna Grecia — Doncaster Futurity Trophy, Gr.1 (1m beating Phoenix of Spain and Western Australia), Naas Irish Stallion Farms 2YO Maiden S. (7f), 2d Newmarket Autumn S., Gr.3 (1m to Persian King and beating Circus Maximus)
Soldiers Call — Doncaster Flying Childers S., Gr.2 (5f beating Well Done Fox and Gossamer Wings), Chantilly Prix d’Arenberg, Gr.3 (1000m beating Queen of Bermuda and Kilfrush Memories), Royal Ascot Windsor Castle S., L (5f beating Sabre and Dom Carlos), Haydock 188bet Mobile Bet10 2YO S. (5f), 3d Longchamp Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp, Gr.1 (1000m to Mabs Cross and Gold Vibe), Goodwood Molecomb S., Gr.3 (5f to Rumble Inthejungle and Life of Riley)
Land Force — Goodwood Richmond S., Gr.2 (6f beating Marie’s Diamond and Shine So Bright), Tipperary S., L (5f beating Mintd and Usra), Curragh Irish Stallion Farms 2YO Maiden S. (6f), 3d Royal Ascot Norfolk S., Gr.2 (5f to Shang Shang Shang and Pocket Dynamo), Curragh Marble Hill S., L (6f to Fairyland and Van Beethoven), 4th Deauville Prix Morny, Gr.1 (1200m)
Invincible Army — Kempton Sirenia S., Gr.3 (6f beating Corinthia Knight and Lake Volta), Newmarket Southend Airport 2YO S. (6f), 2d Newbury Mill Reef S., Gr.2 (6f to James Garfield and beating Nebo), York Gimcrack S., Gr.2 (6f to Sands of Mali and beating Cardsharp), Goodwood Molecomb S., Gr.3 (5f to Havana Grey and beating To Wafij), 4th Newmarket July S., Gr.2 (6f)
Masar — Sandown Solario S., Gr.3 (7f beating Romanised and Arbalet), Goodwood Matchbook Betting Exchange 2YO Novice S. (6f), 3d Chantilly Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere, Gr.1 (1600m to Happily and Olmedo), Royal Ascot Chesham S., L (7f to September and Nyaleti)
Inns of Court only ran once as a 2yo and was a winner over 1400m / 7f on debut at Chantilly in the Prix de la Croix Marquet. His is the weakest 2yo form
How did the market evaluate this crop ?
The bloodstock market itself offers us a useful barometer on the quality of this crop of 2yos. We can glean insight from how the market evaluated them as foals back in 2021 and then again as yearlings in 2022. Of course, not all 2yos that will make the track went through the ring as a foal or yearling, but it’s another set of information that can be additive in shaping our opinion.
Reviewing the average sales prices of foals offered as part of this crop back in 2021, it was Too Darn Hot leading the buying bench. With an average value in GBP of foals sold of £111,002. Blue Point was well clear of the rest with an average foal value of £83,142.
The yearling sales of 2022 held up that trend. TDH and Blue Point held up the top two positions, whilst Advertise’s yearlings were well received propelling him to 3rd position by sales average.
How did their yearlings rate?
Evaluations from our Biomechanics model
As we try to analyse all yearlings that go through the sales ring across the major Northern and Southern Hemisphere sales, we’re able to take a view on the overall quality of that stock.
The below table is a breakdown of the results from our biomechanics model, notably the yearlings that we analysed over the course of the European Yearling sales in 2022 and the expected ratings of the yearlings that we saw. Too Darn Hot stands atop the rankings by some margin, with the algorithm evaluating 12/54 yearlings as having the potential of 100+ level performers. We saw a larger proportion of Blue Point yearlings, 95 in total, with 9 (9.47%) projected as 100+ or stakes level performers.
Ratings Projections from our Pedigree Model
The ratings from our pedigree model are a combination of sire metrics, dam metrics and vendor metrics. As we have limited sire production data here, I tend to take a reserved view.
Notice that I don’t have many lots with 100+ ratings projections here. That’s because I have adjustments for confidence level in our ratings which takes a conservative view on First Season Sires as we haven’t seen any evidence of their ability as a producer. Therefore, it’s a better measure to take the proportion of 90+ rated lots as the indicator. (It takes a lot for a FSS to get a 100+ projected yearling on our pedigree model)
TDH was again the top ranked FSS here, with 12/54 rated yearlings projected at 90+. Blue Point takes the second rank again.
Summary
As you can probably tell, there is one sire here that I feel has been significant under-rated by the odds compilers at SkyBet and that is Too Darn Hot. The strongest 2yo form, strongest biomechanics of rated yearlings and strongest metrics from the market mean that he should be right at the forefront of Champion FSS sire thinking. The only negative I can see is the potential lack of volume of runners in comparison to Ten Sovereigns, Inns of Court and Blue Point. The price is quite frankly mental, he’s 16/1 and I think he should be a 5/1 shot.
Blue Point would be my most likely Champion FSS. He scored well on all metrics and has the soldiers to be able to convert into volume of wins. No juice in the price at 5/2 but perhaps worth some interest if you’re that way inclined.
In terms of depth I feel it’s one of the strongest FSS talent pools of the past couple of years, with a couple of these very likely to pay a prominently role at the top ends of the Bloodstock market in coming years.
Most likely winner: BLUE POINT @ 5/2
Value: TOO DARN HOT @ 16/1
