Goffs Dubai Breeze Up Sale — Post Sale Analysis
The inaugural Goffs Dubai Breeze Up Sale took place this week over on the Tapeta training track in Meydan. Post sale I thought it would be a good idea to analyze the sales results in order to evaluate angles that may be important moving forward for consignors wishing to target the sale next year.
Where available we have captured the yearling purchase price in order to compare against the achieved breeze sale price. All prices have been converted back from various currencies to GBP in order to analyze. We’ve then captured the following metrics for each lot where the yearling purchase price was available:
POSA — this stands for “Profit over sales average” and was a new metric that I was thinking about to evaluate performance vs. the sales baseline
POSIV — this stands for “Profit over sale impact value” and was another new metric I was thinking about, turning the profit for the individual lot into a ratio based on the sales average.
The average profit achieved across all of the lots was £22,315, so we will use this as a baseline.
US Sires & Dams dominated
US sires were all the rage and represented 48.5% of the lots presented, delivering an average ROI of 272% for consigners and a total Profit across the sale of £1,456,880. The average profit above sales average per lot was £23,185 above the sale average of £22,315.
Mares from the US also represented a large proportion of the dam population of the lots; 35/68 and delivered a ROI of 279% for consigners. Buyers sending clear signals that US Dirt Form is of preferable interest for those in the Dubai marketplace.
Mickey Cleere and MC Thoroughbreds were the top performing consignor at the sale. Taking 2 yearling purchases of £36,100 and returning an average breeze sales price of £308,664. Powerstown Stud and Meadowview Stables also enjoyed productive returns.
Evaluating my own performance
At racing² we have a series of ML models and algorithms that provide ratings of sales lots prior to the sales taking place. By way of taking a look at our own performance I wanted to evaluate how our pre sales ratings scored against the market.
100+ rated lots
We rated 5 lots as having 100+ potential, ratings derived from a variety of sire, dam, sire x damsire, consignor and sale factors. Four from five of the lots made a profit with only Lot 2 American Pharaoh x Bansuri failing to make a return. Somewhat surprising given the results from the rest of the sale — an American Sire x American Dam. Overall the 100+ rated lots returned a profit of £306,975 for a ROI of 261%.
90–99 rated lots
Horses in the next rating bracket 90–99 also performed well, returning an ROI of 192% and total profit of £1,179,391. Average profit returned per lot was £43,681 for a POSA of £15,729.
Next up is the Tatts Craven Sale. Get in touch at email@example.com if you find this type of work interesting.