racing² yearling ratings AUS & NZ: March 2024 Update
Each month I do a regular update tracking the performance of our yearling ratings from 2023 as the horses run as 2yos across the 2023/24 flat season in Australia and New Zealand.
I generally publish this on Twitter and share directly with our key partners. From now on I’ve decided to publish on Medium also.
Overall I am happy with how the ratings are performing, with the top rated bands delivering well above market baselines in terms of Stakes Winners to Runners and Group Winners to Runners.
Across the 2yo racehorse population in Australia and New Zealand, I calculate that the average return of Stakes Winners to Runners is at 1.99%, Group Winners to Runners 1.51%. Our top rated band is currently returning 12.90% Stakes Winners to Runners and 12.90% Group Winners to runners.
Recent News / Key Highlights:
We didn’t manage to find the winner of the Golden Slipper, as Lady of Camelot was a homebred. Storm Boy [74.10%], Bodyguard [91.54%], Eneeza [74.67%], Prost [90.50%] & Fully Lit [81.59%] were highly rated horses as yearlings that got a run in the race.
Sunshinyday [90.92%] was a winner of the Qtis Jewel Qualifier Plate on 24th February
Holmes A Court [72.48% rated] won the Black Opal Stakes (G3) on 10th March
Successes – highly rated Stakes Winners
Bellatrix Star [98.47%], Captured By Love [95.44%], Bodyguard [91.54%], Prost [90.50%], Archaic Smile [83.26%], Storm Boy [74.10%], Holmes A Court [72.48%]
Misses – good horses that we missed
Switzerland [3.45%], Dublin Down [3.50%], Coleman [1.45%]
Performance of Ratings by Ratings Threshold
The top rated 90% + band returns 12.90% stakes winners to runners vs 1.57% stakes winners to runners in the bottom rated band.
Performance of Ratings by Individual Band
Here is the performance of ratings by individual band. I prefer the thresholds of >90%, >70% personally, but I know people like to see this view.
Performance of Ratings by Price Metrics / Turnover
Across the ratings band, the turnover required to return a winner doesn’t change significantly, although the top rating band is the more expensive due to a higher average purchase price of those horses. The top rated band returns a stakes winner every $1.9m of spend, whereas it takes $10.03m of spend to return a stakes winner from the bottom rated band. (Calculated by total spend outlay vs. stakes winners returned)
I hope that was useful. I’ll do another update next month.
As the flat season has started in Europe, I will also be doing the same monthly updates for Europe from April.
You can always contact me at racingsquared@gmail.com for queries or questions.
